Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

November 5th - The Morning After

My take on some reactions out there regarding last night's events (there was an election...):
Yes! We won! Finally! (overwhelming majority, er, 52% of Americans)

Oh crap! What did we get ourselves into? (47% of pop.)

Hmmm...the world is still in one piece...in a manner of speaking...You mean to say that the four horsemen didn't come after all? (paranoid righties)

Oh crap! What did we get ourselves into? (smart lefties)

No fair...how do we keep hating America if you do things like this? (Euro kill-joys)

It doesn't matter who you put up there, we'll still hate you. (Most of the mid-east)

This is the end of history. No more progress is possible. (elite liberals)

Oh crap! What did we get ourselves into? (out-of-work bloggers)

I don't care! Gimme back my TV shows! (Joe the Consumer)

This sucks. I'm moving to real America. (elite east coast conservatives)

I'm glad I don't have to move to Canada after all. (Jane the Latte Sipper)

We won't tell him about the leaks in the White House master bathroom. (GWB)

What's going on? How can they "project" the winner before counting any votes? (my wife)

Today we are all Obamas. (Kenyans)

Back to obscurity. (Saturday Night Live)

Back to obscurity. (CNN)

At least we can play the part of the "constructive" opposition. (Rupert Murdoch - Fox News)

But...but...but...capitalism is a fundamental right! (Rupert Murdoch - Wall Street Journal)

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

The Great American Voting Project

is underway and I participated in it. Got to my polling place in N. Virginia by 5:30 this morning, sleep lines and all, only to see 75 people already waiting in line, gabbing excitedly as if this election were important. Ran into a few friends and neighbors, did the obligatory small talk with some strangers, calculated the profit potential of a coffee & bagel cart (if only I had had the foresight to exploit this historic moment...alas), and thanked my stars (meaning, of course, my wife) for having the wisdom to show up early. By the time the doors opened at 6, the line had occupied a city block.

Inside, a helpful lady explained how to work the electronic voting machine (no paper trail, natch), and brightly encouraged us to simply trust that the technology would work just fine. Fortified by this knowledge, I waited in yet another line for the privilege of announcing to the poll worker that I (full name), of (full address), born in (city, state, and birth weight), late of (previous address), and being of sound mind (evidenced by having woken up this early) and body (proven by having stood in line), unencumbered by knowledge of the candidates' views was ready to exercise my constitutional obligation and cast the tie-breaking and crucial vote that would decide the election.

And so, after fiddling with the necessary dials, I did. And I have the "I Voted" sticker to prove it.

Saturday, November 01, 2008

What Voting Means to Me

Just two blessed days until America votes, bringing a merciful end to the two-year-long competition for the right to inherit all these problems. Or so we hope, fervently wishing that we have a final result on Tuesday and not have it dragged out through multiple overtimes. Our anxiety over the outcome of this election unfortunately overshadows the best part of all: the actual ritual of voting. On this day, millions will walk into their nearest polling place, stand in a miserably long line, chat with friends and strangers nearby, cast their vote, and retreat to their individual routines. And, I never cease to marvel at the spectacle.

Much has been written around the world about the importance of voting, the meaning of suffrage, the duties of citizenship, and there is nothing I can add to that body of work. These are just some of my favorite nuggets and images about voting that stir my heart. The actual elections may not always work well, or fairly, leaders may disappoint, but I still believe the right to vote is a special thing. So, please, please, vote. If you don't care about any candidate, write someone else's name in. Just vote. It's a beautiful thing to do.
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Daughter of Slave Votes For Obama:
Amanda Jones, 109, the daughter of a man born into slavery, has lived a life long enough to touch three centuries. And after voting consistently as a Democrat for 70 years, she has voted early for the country's first black presidential nominee.

Amanda Jones' father urged her to exercise her right to vote, despite discriminatory practices at the polls and poll taxes meant to keep black and poor people from voting. Those practices were outlawed for federal elections with the 24th Amendment in 1964, but not for state and local races in Texas until 1966.

She is too weak to go the polls, so two of her 10 children — Eloise Baker, 75, and Joyce Jones — helped her fill out a mail-in ballot for Barack Obama, Baker said.

Iraqis Defy Threats as Millions Vote (2005):
Lines that began small at polling stations grew during the 10 hours of voting, sometimes dramatically. After casting ballots, many Iraqis triumphantly pointed their index fingers, stained with the purple ink that indicated they had voted, and hardly flinched at gunfire and explosions that interrupted the day.

Across town, three Iraqi soldiers carried an elderly man in a wheelchair two blocks to a voting booth.

The Great Indian Poll Show (2004):

More than 350 million Indians have braved intense heat, pouring rain and snow to take part in the largest democratic exercise in the world.

Voting in the world's largest democracy has its own idiosyncrasies. Poll officials travelled by yak and elephants to reach remote polling stations high up in the mountains, some of which only had a few hundred registered voters. Others trekked for three days or were dropped off by helicopter.



"Faces Filled with Joy": The 1994 South African Election

When eight white policemen burst into the polling place at Eshowe Town Hall, the fears and suspicion that had plagued the buildup to the election were suddenly manifest again. I felt the general panic. What was wrong? What had we failed to observe? And then I laughed out loud as the officers disarmed and stood in line to cast their ballots.

The people came; the ballot boxes filled and were sealed with sealing wax. They switched to collecting ballots in mail bags. The people came, and the people in the great majority put Mandela in the box.

Liberia (2005)
On 11 October, voters began queuing as early as 2 a.m. to cast their ballots at polling stations set up in churches, schools, dilapidated public buildings and even tents and rural huts. Some carried benches to sit on and umbrellas to shield themselves from rain and sun. Queues spilled out of the voting precincts winding through streets. More than 3,500 national and 421 international observers, including former US President Jimmy Carter, who monitored Liberia’s first postwar elections, endorsed the exercise as free and fair.

Pennsylvania Reality Check

Horse race junkies are hyperventilating about the importance of Pennsylvania to the candidates' chances on Tuesday. In particular, some polls there have shown a 4 point lead for Obama compared to the double-digit lead that most other polls have shown. This has naturally led to cautious optimism among Republicans and anguished bed-wetting among some Democrats. There is broad consensus that McCain absolutely needs to turn Pennsylvania red for him to have any chance of winning the election; this is a state that has been one of the reliably blue states for a while (both Kerry and Gore won here).

Not to extinguish such entertaining anxiety on both sides, but, it may be worthwhile to compare current polls with those from 2004 when John Kerry carried the state by 2 points. First, the current polling trend from Real Clear Politics, where the spread of the averages for the week leading up to the election is 8.5 points:


Now, from 2004, my compilation of RCP data from September through November:


Not too difficult to spot the amateur graphic, right? However, I tried to use the same scale on the left, so the comparison should be clear: there is none. Kerry's highest lead during the period was never more than 4 or 5 points, and in some polls he was down by as many as 4 points to Bush (RCP average for the final week before the election was Kerry leading by 0.9 points!). Yet, the final result (the yellow tick mark above) of a 2 point victory was pretty much in line with the polls. Obama, by contrast, has averaged nearly a 10 point lead, and has not even trailed in a single poll since April!

Yes, anything is possible, there are worries about a Bradley Effect, etc. But, I would just like to say the obvious: if Obama loses Pennsylvania, he will have lost in a landslide to McCain, not in a squeaker. Also, I would expect much wailing and gnashing of the teeth among pollsters for years and decades afterward to figure out what the heck happened. This would be a cataclysmic event in the science of polling, falling into the "damn lies" category of how Benjamin Disraeli described statistics.

But, please, keep the anxiety going. It is very entertaining.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Dregs

If you had had the misfortune of wandering over to Drudge tonight, you would have noticed the following cryptic screamer (without a link to an article):


His sludgeness, Mr. Matt, is questioning whether the 16 news organizations listed above might all be wrong in their polls which have consistently shown Obama ahead of McCain at the national level. Your immediate response to this "question" probably reveals your political preference. Obama devotees are probably incensed at the Dreg Depot's ignoring of all pro-Obama news in favor of manufactured skepticism such as this headline. McCain grit pals are the ones ardently hoping against all evidence that the Grudge Resort is correct.

And a very small minority out there--known as the independents--wondered whether it is possible that Matt Fudge is hedging his bets by asking a question that could be read as being self-refuting, i.e., can sixteen independent polling outfits all be wrong in the same direction?

By a remarkable coincidence, Faux Noise, the sludge echo, leads its online political coverage tonight with the following gem of journalistic excellence:
Pollsters Struggle to Handicap Presidential Race: Barack Obama's leading in virtually every national poll, but his margin fluctuates wildly -- suggesting that in some cases, the numbers do in fact lie.
The article "finds" that even though virtually every poll out since late September has shown Obama ahead, his lead has varied wildly, from 1 to 13 points in the past two weeks alone. From this observation, Flax News infers that, naturally, McCain must be leading somewhere in some sets of voters, which means the polls are suspect, never mind that the overwhelming majority of polls have shown Obama ahead all the time. (I could point you to professional critiques of the "close" polls such as this one, but I'll spare you.) The compounding problem that is causing such fits to the poor pollster babies? Not a dearth of data, as one might expect, but an excess of the squigglies:
FOX News political analyst Karl Rove said by his count, there have been 177 national polls conducted as of Oct. 24, compared with 55 at the same time in 2004.
"The proliferation of polls, particularly polls run by universities that may not have the skill and capability that a professional polling outfit has, are really not helpful to the process, in my opinion," Rove said.
So, having more than three times the amount of data showing one candidate consistently ahead is the problem? What are the odds that that many trollsters could all be chucked into the polling feeding frenzy and almost all emerge with the same result?

The sharper-eyed among you would notice whom Flack Nays quoted above: yes, the Prez's favorite Turd Blossom himself (see #9). The other pollsters mentioned by the article in order to justify the title of this dingbat piece of journalism? Dana Blanton, FOX News polling director, and Karlyn Bowman, who studies public opinion for the American Enterprise Institute (I'll save you the suspense...they lean pro-McCain.)

All said, whom do you think this type of coverage best helps? McCain, in order to gin up some more enthusiasm? Or Obama, who has worried about complacency?